Agricultural Decision-making and Adaptation to Precipitation Trends in Sri Lanka:

 

An Overview of the ADAPT-SL Project

 

Project Background

 

Since 2010, researchers from Vanderbilt University’s Institute for Energy and Environment (VIEE; USA) have partnered with the National Building Research Organization (NBRO; Sri Lanka) to examine the connection between agricultural adaptation and climate change in the dry zone of Sri Lanka.  In general, VIEE faculty and students conduct research on issues related to energy and the environment, with a large focus on climate change and water use.  The ADAPT-SL project is a cornerstone of VIEE’s work. This project is funded by the US National Science Foundation under a program that supports basic scientific work on water, sustainability and climate. This funding will support our work through 2017, although we anticipate seeking additional funding to extend the project beyond that.

 

It is well-known that small-scale farmers in developing countries are among the most vulnerable to climate changes. We aim to gain a better understanding of how these farmers are adjusting their practices to deal with climate change effects. Our initial interest in Sri Lanka started through the connections of a Sri Lankan researcher at VIEE. Through our preliminary work we learned that the country’s reliance on rain-fed agriculture and its sophisticated irrigation system made it an ideal place to study the linkages between climate change, adaptation, and food security. In a sense, Sri Lanka is a microcosm of the sort of stressors facing developing nations worldwide.

 

Sri Lanka scores relatively highly on the Human Development Index, having a well-educated population, a life expectancy of almost 75 years, and a growing economy. Despite this, the country faces several continuing development challenges.  Roughly one-third of its population is engaged in agriculture.[i] In rural districts like Anuradhapura, the figure rises to over 60%. Seventy-eight percent of the population live in rural areas. As Sri Lanka is already densely populated, there is little room for further agricultural expansion.

 

Sri Lanka’s dependence on agriculture makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change.  Much of the country’s attention in regards to climate change adaptation is focused on sea level rise, logical given the concentration of population and infrastructure along the country’s coast.  However, further attention needs to be paid to inland areas. Temperature in Sri Lanka has increased about 1°C over the past 50 years,[ii] and is expected to continue to rise. While projections for rainfall are less certain, higher temperatures necessarily mean higher levels of evapotranspiration, suggesting that Sri Lanka may have less water in the future. The anticipated impacts of climate change are particularly problematic for the country’s dry zone, where agriculture is dependent both on rainfall and on water transported via canal over long distances.  Farmers tell us that they are already experiencing changes in the onset and intensity of monsoon rains which make it harder for them to effectively manage their production and maximize yields.

 

Research Questions

 

We seek to understand how Sri Lankan farmers have in the past and currently are adapting to climate change, and how they can adapt to future climate change. As part of this study we will attempt to answer several key research questions:

 

1. How has the climate in Sri Lanka changed in the past? How is it likely to change in the future?

2. How can and do farmers adapt to changes in the climate? What new adaptations will be necessary in the face of anthropogenic climate change?

3. What social, economic, political and environmental forces shape farmers’ decisions?

 

Our approach includes research grounded in both the natural and social sciences. The aim of our project is to understand pathways for adapting to climate change generally, and to improve Sri Lanka’s capabilities to adapt. Our research also has applications for agriculture adaptation in the United States and elsewhere.  We are committed to ensuring that the data and products of the research flow in both directions between the US and Sri Lanka, benefiting both countries.

 

Study Area

 

Our research is situated within the Mahaweli River Watershed (MRW) of Sri Lanka. We have selected this region because of its significance as the predominant rice growing region of the country. The MRW encompasses 75% of the land area of Sri Lanka yet receives less than 40% of total rainfall, most of which falls between the monsoon season between October and March.  When rainfall is insufficient agriculture in this “dry zone” is buffered by an extensive irrigation system that serves over 3,600 square kilometers. However, irrigation is also vulnerable to climate change in addition to increasing energy production and population demands. These impacts and the responses of community members and decision makers within the MRW are at the heart of this project.

 

Over the course of this research project we plan to work within a number of communities within the Mahaweli. To date, we have conducted preliminary survey data collection, key informant interviews, water sampling, and soil sampling in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, and Badulla Districts. In November 2013 this research team will begin conducting longitudinal surveys in six communities (GNs) near System H and System D in the MRW. This will include household interviews and key informant interviews with community leaders. The specific GNs have not yet been selected.

 

Overview of Research Plan

 

We plan to gather data from multiple sources and collect new data to provide an overall picture of the factors that affect farming practices in the face of climate changes. This plan includes:

 

1. conducting interviews with farmers to learn about their farming decisions

2. gathering existing data on climate conditions, including temperature and rainfall

3. developing a rich contextual understanding of the institutional processes that influence farming

4. developing a model that links all this data together

 

VIEE has assembled teams of researchers that employ diverse methods. A number of sub-projects to collect and analyze data are already underway. Because we are in the early stages of a five-year project, we expect our research program to evolve significantly over the years. A more specific description of research plans already underway is included below.

 

The climate and hydrological sciences team aims to examine historic temperature and rainfall data in Sri Lanka to understand past climate patterns, and how water availability for both rain fed minor tanks and for major works in the Mahaweli irrigation system, might change given future climate projections.  The team is also interested in looking into related questions around soil and irrigation water quality. Specific projects currently underway include:

 

• An analysis of temporal and spatial trends in the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the development of a local decision support tool informed by these analyses.

• The use of principal components analysis to examine shifts in rainfall patterns in Sri Lanka from 1881 -2011.

• The application of the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) Model to understand how alternative farming methods, climate, and soil properties might affect rice yields, nitrate leaching, and greenhouse gas emission.

 

The survey team is designing a longitudinal survey that will take places in 30 GNs throughout the MRW between 2013 and 2017. This effort will include a household survey administered to paddy farmers that collects information about household demographics, farm inputs and outputs, water vulnerability, adaptive responses, etc.  A community profile will also be conducted in which key leaders within the community are interviewed to understand the availability of resources and services. We plan to complete annual or semi-annual follow-up surveys throughout the project period. With these data we plan to carry out the following analyses:

 

• Document adaptive responses adopted by farmers to cope with water scarcity and examine their potential for more widespread diffusion;

• Examine individual, household, and community level factors that contribute to vulnerability or resilience in the face of water stress;

• Identify opportunities for developing or improving services that can assist farmers to cope with water stress;

• Assess the impacts of new irrigation infrastructure, policies, interventions, land use changes, and climate change on household and community agricultural productivity and socioeconomic outcomes over time

 

The primary analytical tools will include multi-level modeling, structural equation modeling, and agent based modeling.

Thecontext analysis team is seeking to understand the social, cultural, political, and economic contexts which affect agriculture and agricultural decision making in Sri Lanka.  The team has begun interviewing officials from governmental agencies and non-governmental organizations and conducting archival and policy analysis work.  In addition, the team plans to conduct oral histories and gather in-depth social and cultural information in four villages in Sri Lanka.

 

The modeling team uses computer simulation to understand how the decisions taken by individuals and communities interact to affect the success of different strategies for managing water scarcity in a complex coupled human-natural system. A simple model of a rice cultivating village is currently being developed; as the other teams’ research produces more detailed descriptions of agricultural decision making in Sri Lanka, these results will be incorporated into this model. As the model increases in scope, it will be used to analyze multiple scenarios to identify adaptations and policies that can lead to optimal livelihood outcomes for farmers. The modeling team will play a major role in integrating data across the climate and hydrological, survey, and context analysis teams throughout his project.

 

Although VIEE has ultimate responsibility for the research directly funded by the US NSF; VIEE and NBRO have enjoyed a strong collaboration since this project began in 2010. Recently, NBRO established a Climate Research Unit (CRU) to conduct policy-relevant research into climate change impacts and adaptation in Sri Lanka. CRU researchers are working with VIEE’s climate and hydrological sciences team to develop a drought risk identification tool to inform local level decision makers. The CRU also coordinates a Sri Lankan-based stakeholder advisory committee to advise the ADAPT-SL project so that the results generated lead to implementable changes that support farmers. In addition, CRU researchers are actively developing new areas of research to prepare for climate change impacts in Sri Lanka.

 

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i (2011 Labour Force Survey)

ii (Zubair, L. et al.Impact Assessment and Adaptation to Climate Change of Plantations in Sri Lanka. (International Research Institute for Climate and Society,Earth Institute at Columbia University, 2010).

 

 

Project-related websites

 

https://my.vanderbilt.edu/srilankaproject/

http://www.vanderbilt.edu/viee/

http://www.nbro.gov.lk/